- EUR/USD gains upward momentum on Monday as renewed USD selling supports the pair.
- The technical outlook suggests caution before anticipating further gains.
- A decisive break below the 50% Fibonacci level could signal a bearish shift.
The EUR/USD pair attracts fresh buying interest at the start of the week, snapping a three-day losing streak from a two-week low near the 1.0360 area reached on Friday. The renewed upside momentum pushes spot prices above the 1.0400 mark during the Asian session, supported by a weaker US Dollar (USD).
From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD has shown resilience below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of February’s rally. The move back above the 38.2% Fibo. level suggests that the pullback from last week's one-month high of 1.0525-1.0530 may have ended. This region, aligning with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), serves as a key level for short-term traders.
However, daily chart oscillators have yet to confirm a clear bullish bias, prompting caution among buyers, especially amid lingering concerns over US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. Despite this, EUR/USD appears poised to extend its gains toward the 1.0450 level, a former horizontal support now acting as resistance, which also aligns with the 23.6% Fibo. level. A sustained break above this zone could open the door for a move toward the psychologically significant 1.0500 mark.
On the downside, the 1.0370 area, corresponding to the 50% Fibo. level, offers immediate support. A break below this level could trigger further selling pressure, dragging the pair toward the 61.8% Fibo. level near 1.0330, followed by the 1.0300 mark and the 1.0285 support zone. Deeper losses could see EUR/USD testing the February swing low around 1.0210 before extending toward the 1.0180-1.0175 region, marking a two-year low last seen in January.
EUR/USD daily chart
