Europe is known for its coalition governments, which are often challenging to establish and difficult to sustain. For Michel Barnier's new French government, however, this form of governance is an unfamiliar terrain. Convening for the first time on September 23rd, Barnier’s administration marks a significant milestone: it is the first minority coalition government in France since the inception of the Fifth Republic in 1958. This coalition, formed by rival parties that opposed each other during the legislative elections, must navigate the complexities of uniting a diverse mix of centrists and right-wing members while ensuring that the opposition remains fractured to maintain its stability.
The new government represents a significant political shift to the right, even though the inconclusive elections in July saw the left-wing alliance secure the most seats, albeit without a majority. After two months of negotiations, President Emmanuel Macron ultimately invited Michel Barnier, a 73-year-old conservative, to establish a broad "unifying" government. However, despite the prime minister's attempts to create a more inclusive cabinet, he managed to bring on just one individual from the left: Didier Migaud, a former Socialist deputy, who now serves as the justice minister. For the role of interior minister, Barnier chose Bruno Retailleau, a right-wing senator known for his strong family-values stance and hardline views on immigration.
Such is the nature of coalition governments formed under specific circumstances. However, France is not accustomed to this type of governance, and it will take time for this coalition to stabilize. One left-leaning member of President Macron's centrist parliamentary group has already resigned, while another deputy has stated that his continued support is "conditional." Furthermore, there is no formal coalition agreement in place. Mr. Barnier is set to deliver his first speech to parliament on October 1st, outlining his agenda.
Until then, the best insight into his policy direction can be gleaned from the coalition's composition. It consists of conservative Republicans alongside a group of mostly inexperienced centrists aligned with Macron. Notably, the coalition does not include any prominent potential presidential candidates from either side, a strategic move by Barnier to maintain focus on immediate objectives rather than the upcoming presidential election in 2027.
Macron's allies retain control of the foreign and defense ministries, which have traditionally been under presidential authority. Sébastien Lecornu continues as defense minister, while Jean-Noël Barrot, a centrist, takes over foreign affairs. Additionally, Benjamin Haddad, a young deputy advocating for increased French support for Ukraine, has been appointed as Europe minister.
In terms of economic policy, President Macron's business-friendly approach is expected to continue under the new administration. Mr. Barnier has appointed centrists to both the finance and budget ministries. Upon taking office, Antoine Armand, the relatively unknown 33-year-old finance minister, stated, "Our task is to make life easier for business." However, Barnier has also indicated a potential increase in taxes on "big multinationals" and "the wealthiest" individuals. With the budget deficit projected to reach 5.6% of GDP this year, some adjustments will be necessary. The upcoming budget is set to be presented to parliament on October 9th.
Despite his popularity, with a 57% approval rating, Mr. Barnier may lack the resolve to implement the significant spending cuts that France requires. His traditional leadership style is seen as reassuring; he has instructed his ministers to avoid any form of "showmanship." However, the coalition has not addressed the fundamental issue that led Mr. Macron to dissolve parliament: it holds only 212 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly.
Both the left and Marine Le Pen's hard right possess enough votes to potentially topple the new government through a parliamentary no-confidence motion. The left has announced plans to introduce such a motion following Barnier's inaugural speech, while the hard right may take a more cautious approach. As long as the opposition remains fragmented, Mr. Barnier's government will remain intact. However, the moment they unite in their voting, the government’s stability could be jeopardized.
