- Gold is edging back above $2,900 on a relatively quiet trading day.
- Geopolitical developments, particularly around Ukraine, are set to dominate the markets this week.
- A daily close above $2,900 would support further gains for gold this week.
Gold (XAU/USD) is hovering around $2,900 again on Monday, recovering from its sharp correction on Friday. While US markets are closed for the President's Day holiday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains active. On a quiet trading day, three Fed speakers are scheduled to comment, filling the void left by an otherwise light macroeconomic calendar.
Over the weekend, several geopolitical updates dominated the news. US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss peace efforts in Ukraine. Neither Ukraine nor European representatives are invited to these talks, although US and Russian officials are already en route.
Daily Digest Market Movers: US Officials Arrive in Riyadh
- Market participants are eagerly awaiting more details on President Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans, which could escalate global trade tensions. Additionally, levies on automobiles are expected to take effect on April 2, according to Bloomberg.
- If Senator Cynthia Lummis’ proposal gains traction, Bitcoin may find its place alongside gold. The senator has suggested adding Bitcoin to the US reserves, emphasizing the blockchain network’s transparency and accessibility.
- At 14:30 GMT, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker will speak on the economic outlook at the Central Banking Series Conference in Nassau, Bahamas.
- At 15:20 GMT, Fed Governor Michelle W. Bowman will give brief remarks on the economy and bank regulation at the American Bankers Association Conference for Community Bankers in Phoenix, Arizona.
- Closing out Monday, at 23:00 GMT, Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller will discuss the economic outlook at the UNSW Macroeconomic Workshop in Sydney, Australia.
Technical Analysis: False Breaks
Gold is recovering and trading back above $2,900 after a nearly 1.5% drop on Friday. However, with US bond markets closed due to the President’s Day holiday, all eyes will be on news regarding Ukraine and potential tariff announcements.
The first support level to watch on Monday is the S1 support at $2,859. If that fails, the S2 support at $2,836 should provide further protection, preventing a deeper decline to the more significant $2,790 level (the high from October 31, 2024).
On the upside, the Daily Pivot at $2,899 is the key level to reclaim. If gold breaks above this, the next resistance is at $2,922 (R1), followed by $2,962 (R2). Beyond that, the $3,000 psychological level could be the next target.
