Gold bounces back as safe-haven demand strengthens ahead of the Trump–Zelenskyy summit

Gold (XAU/USD) begins the week with volatile price action, rebounding sharply after slipping to an 11-day low near $3,323 during early Monday trading. The recovery is fueled by renewed safe-haven demand, as geopolitical uncertainty rises following an inconclusive summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin over the weekend.

As of the European session, Gold is trading around $3,348, up 0.36% on the day. Despite the rebound, the precious metal remains range-bound within the levels established last week, reflecting ongoing market caution ahead of a key diplomatic meeting later today between President Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and several European leaders. The outcome of this meeting could significantly influence the next steps in the Russia–Ukraine peace process.

Friday’s Trump–Putin talks in Alaska ended without a concrete resolution. While discussions about security guarantees for Ukraine offered a glimmer of progress, no ceasefire was reached. Trump reportedly shifted the focus from an immediate truce to laying the groundwork for a broader peace framework. Meanwhile, Russia is said to be demanding control over disputed territories such as Donetsk—an offer that Ukraine is unlikely to accept. The diplomatic ball is now in Kyiv’s court, with support from its Western allies.

On the macroeconomic front, a firm US Dollar and equity markets hovering near record highs are capping Gold’s upside. However, a decline in US Treasury yields is providing some support to the metal, balancing out the pressure. The mixed signals are keeping Gold locked in a tight range as investors turn their attention to the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium later this week, where remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may offer fresh insights into the future of interest rates and monetary policy.

Market Movers: US Dollar Steady Ahead of Trump–Zelenskyy Meeting; Gold Holds in Range

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firm near the 98.00 psychological mark, holding above a two-week low as markets await key geopolitical developments. Investor attention is focused on the anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, alongside several European leaders, which could impact broader market sentiment.
• Meanwhile, US Treasury yields are easing slightly across the curve after two sessions of gains. The benchmark 10-year yield has dipped about 2.3 basis points to 4.297%, while the 30-year yield slipped nearly 2 basis points to 4.899%. This softening in yields is providing some support to Gold prices, which typically struggle when yields rise.
• In terms of data, US Retail Sales rose 0.5% month-over-month in July, matching forecasts but showing a slowdown from the upwardly revised 0.9% increase in June. Year-over-year, retail sales growth eased to 3.9% from 4.4%, suggesting a slight cooling in consumer spending momentum.
• Consumer sentiment also showed signs of weakening. The University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for August fell to 58.6 from 61.7. More notably, inflation expectations surged—one-year expectations jumped to 4.9%, while the five-year outlook rose to 3.9%.
• Last week’s inflation data painted a mixed picture: while consumer prices remained stable, a sharp rise in wholesale prices has cast doubt on the possibility of aggressive Federal Reserve action. Although markets continue to expect a 25 basis point rate cut in September, traders have scaled back from earlier optimism. The CME FedWatch Tool shows an 84% chance of a September rate cut, down from nearly 100% last week following the CPI release.
• Gold continues to find support from easing rate expectations, which have helped limit its downside even as other assets remain strong.
• According to the CFTC’s latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report published on August 15, speculative net-long positions in Gold declined to 229,500 contracts from 237,100 the previous week. The dip signals a modest reduction in bullish sentiment amid ongoing market uncertainty.
• With Monday’s US economic calendar relatively light, Gold remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines, particularly developments from the Trump–Zelenskyy meeting.
• Looking ahead, key events this week include the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on Wednesday and a highly anticipated speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, which could offer fresh direction for markets.

Technical Analysis: Gold (XAU/USD) Stuck in Range as Bulls Face Resistance

Gold (XAU/USD) continues to trade sideways, trapped in a well-defined consolidation range on the 4-hour chart. Immediate support lies at $3,330, while resistance is capped around $3,370. Price action suggests indecision, with neither bulls nor bears showing clear dominance ahead of major events.

Gold has consistently attracted dip-buying near the $3,330 level, but gains remain limited as the metal struggles to maintain momentum above $3,350. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $3,348 acts as the first layer of resistance, while the 50-period SMA around $3,362 reinforces the upper range barrier.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just below the neutral 50 mark, recovering slightly after nearing oversold territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is hinting at a possible bullish crossover. However, both MACD and signal lines remain below zero, and the histogram shows only shallow bars—indicating weak momentum.

A clear breakout above $3,370 would confirm a bullish move and open the door to a retest of the $3,400 psychological level. On the flip side, a sustained drop below $3,330 could expose the next downside target at $3,300, with increased selling pressure likely if that level fails to hold.