Gold price uptrend continues uninterrupted, setting new all-time highs

Gold prices continue their intraday rally through the early European session on Monday, reaching a fresh all-time high around the $3,128 mark. Persistent concerns over the economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade tariffs weigh heavily on investor sentiment. Additionally, geopolitical tensions drive safe-haven demand, pushing the precious metal higher for the third consecutive day.

The U.S. Dollar (USD) remains under pressure due to growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will initiate rate cuts in June in response to a tariff-induced economic slowdown. This further supports gold’s bullish momentum. Moreover, recent U.S. economic data released on Friday pointed to rising inflation, reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge against increasing prices.

• Last week, President Trump unsettled financial markets by imposing a 25% tariff on all non-American cars and light trucks, ahead of the reciprocal tariffs set to take effect on April 2. Additionally, a report from The Wall Street Journal on Sunday suggested that the Trump administration is considering higher trade tariffs on a broader range of countries, further fueling safe-haven demand and pushing gold prices to a new record high in the Asian session on Monday.
• Tensions escalated over the weekend as Trump expressed anger toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, threatening massive tariffs on Russian oil and potential military action in Iran. He also criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, warning of severe consequences if Ukraine backed out of a key rare earth minerals deal. These geopolitical developments have intensified market uncertainty, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold.
• Meanwhile, U.S. economic data released on Friday showed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.3% in February and 2.5% year-over-year, aligning with market expectations. However, the core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, registered a 0.4% monthly increase, marking the highest gain since January 2024. This pushed the annual inflation rate to 2.8%.
• Additional reports revealed that consumer spending increased by 0.4% in February, following a downward revision to January’s 0.3% decline. Personal income rose 0.8%, while a University of Michigan survey indicated that 12-month inflation expectations reached their highest level in nearly two and a half years. These factors have reinforced gold’s appeal as a hedge against inflation.
• Concerns over a potential slowdown in U.S. economic growth, coupled with stagflation fears, have weighed on the USD for the third consecutive day, further supporting XAU/USD. Despite the release of China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data—showing a slight uptick in the Manufacturing PMI to 50.5 and the Non-Manufacturing PMI rising to 50.8 in March—gold prices remained largely unaffected.
• Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor this week’s key U.S. economic releases, including the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. While overbought conditions may limit immediate gains, the broader market fundamentals continue to favor an upward trajectory for gold.

From a technical standpoint, Friday’s breakout above the previous all-time high of $3,057-$3,058 served as a strong bullish signal. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 70 for the third consecutive day, indicating overbought conditions. This suggests that a short-term consolidation or a minor pullback may be necessary before gold resumes its well-established uptrend, which has been in place for the past three months.

In the event of a corrective pullback, initial support is expected around the Asian session low of $3,076, followed by the key resistance-turned-support zone at $3,036-$3,035. A break below this level could accelerate a decline toward the psychological $3,000 mark. A decisive drop below this threshold may shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders, paving the way for deeper losses.

Overall, despite the possibility of a brief pause in the rally, the fundamental and technical backdrop suggests that gold’s bullish trajectory remains intact.