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The Pound Sterling holds near 1.3550 against the US Dollar as markets await the Trump–Zelenskyy meeting at the White House.
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Investor sentiment remains strong on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
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UK core CPI is projected to rise steadily by 3.7%, according to economists.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is trading within a narrow range around 1.3550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair consolidates as investors await a high-stakes meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and NATO leaders at the White House. The meeting is expected to address the peace terms proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin for ending the conflict in Ukraine.
Last Friday, Trump met with Putin in Alaska to discuss a potential peace agreement. Following the meeting, Trump revealed that Putin had proposed freezing most front lines in exchange for Ukraine surrendering full control of Donetsk—an industrial hub and key target for Moscow—according to Reuters. However, Zelenskyy firmly rejected any concession involving territorial loss.
Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic ahead of the meeting, with S&P 500 futures edging up 0.13% to around 6,460. Hopes of a potential truce between Moscow and Kyiv could support risk-on sentiment. Nonetheless, a lack of progress is unlikely to trigger significant market volatility, as the geopolitical risks surrounding the war have already been priced in by investors.
Daily Market Movers: Focus on UK CPI and Jackson Hole Symposium
- The Pound Sterling begins the week on stable footing, with investors turning their attention to the upcoming UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, due Wednesday. This data will be crucial in shaping expectations for the Bank of England’s (BoE) next monetary policy moves. Economists forecast the core CPI—which excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco—to rise steadily by 3.7% year-over-year.
- Persistent inflationary pressures would likely reinforce the BoE’s cautious approach to policy easing. Earlier this month, the BoE cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, with a narrow majority supporting the move, while reiterating a strategy of “gradual and careful” monetary expansion.
- In the U.S., the key event this week is the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for August 21–23. Market participants will closely monitor Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks for any indications on the central bank’s interest rate path.
- As of press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY)—which measures the greenback’s performance against a basket of six major currencies—hovers above 97.60, its lowest level in nearly three weeks. The US Dollar has been under pressure since the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report signaled a cooling labor market, boosting expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 82.6% probability of a rate cut next month.
- Supporting this sentiment, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in a recent interview with Fox Business that there is room for a rate cut in September, and potentially another later this year, even though July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) showed stronger-than-expected growth.
Technical Outlook: GBP/USD consolidates with bullish undertone
Technically, the GBP/USD pair continues to trade sideways around 1.3550. The short-term outlook remains bullish as the pair holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently positioned near 1.3460.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is attempting to break above the 60.00 level. A confirmed move above this threshold would signal renewed bullish momentum.
On the downside, the August 11 low at 1.3400 serves as a key support level. On the upside, resistance is seen near the July 1 high at 1.3790.
