- The Australian Dollar holds steady following mixed economic data from Australia and the release of China’s NBS PMI on Thursday.
- Australian Retail Sales edged up by 0.1% MoM in September, falling short of the anticipated 0.3% increase and down from the previous 0.7% growth.
- Traders are now looking ahead to the US PCE inflation data on Thursday and the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains stable following Thursday’s release of mixed economic data from Australia and China’s NBS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Hawkish expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) policy outlook provided support, limiting any downside for the AUD/USD pair.
In September, seasonally adjusted Australian Retail Sales rose modestly by 0.1% month-over-month, missing the forecasted 0.3% increase and down from the previous month’s 0.7% growth. On a quarterly basis, Retail Sales grew by 0.5% in Q3, recovering from a 0.3% decline in the prior quarter.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) gains traction amid caution tied to upcoming US presidential election uncertainty. The USD faced slight headwinds after the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) annualized at 2.8% in Q3, below both the previous 3.0% growth in Q2 and market expectations.
Traders now shift focus to critical upcoming US data, including Thursday’s PCE inflation figures and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
Daily Digest: Australian Dollar Sidesteps on Mixed Data
- The Australian Dollar faced downward pressure after Australia’s lower-than-expected Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released on Wednesday, although mixed US economic data helped balance this impact.
- China’s NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in October, from 50.0, just below the 50.4 forecast. Meanwhile, the NBS Manufacturing PMI increased slightly to 50.1, surpassing expectations of 50.0.
- The ADP Employment Change report revealed a gain of 233,000 jobs in October for US private businesses, the highest increase since July 2023, beating forecasts of 115,000.
- The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a Q3 CPI rise of just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, down from 1.0% in the previous quarter, slightly under the expected 0.3%. On an annual basis, CPI rose by 2.1% in September, missing the anticipated 2.3% and down from August’s 2.7%.
- JOLTS Job Openings in the US fell to 7.443 million in September, down from 7.861 million in August, missing the forecasted 7.99 million.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia indicated the current cash rate of 4.35% is sufficiently restrictive to guide inflation back within the 2%-3% target while supporting employment, making a rate cut in November unlikely.
- ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence in Australia dropped to 86.4, down from 87.5 last week.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar Holds Above 0.6550 Near Channel Resistance
The AUD/USD hovers around 0.6570 on Thursday, reflecting a short-term bearish trend as it trades within a descending channel. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) trends lower, sitting just above the 30 level, underscoring bearish sentiment.
The AUD/USD may test the descending channel’s lower boundary near 0.6510, followed by the psychological support at 0.6500.
The pair approaches the upper boundary of the descending channel near 0.6580, with a further psychological barrier at 0.6600. A breakout above could open the path toward the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6608.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
